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The year-on-year change in Canadian consumer prices, published with the Bank of Canada's trim, median and common core measures.
| Published by | Statistics Canada |
|---|---|
| Country | Canada |
| Currency affected | CAD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 30-60 pips on USD/CAD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) is released monthly by Statistics Canada, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
The BoC explicitly targets the average of its core measures, so those matter more than the headline.
Shelter costs dominate the Canadian basket, which makes the series unusually sensitive to mortgage-rate pass-through.
Typical volatility around the release is 30-60 pips on USD/CAD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| USD/CAD | Loonie inflation repricing. |
| CAD/JPY | Carry expression. |
| EUR/CAD | CAD-only expression. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0 |
| 19 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0 |
| 20 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| 19 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | +0.1 |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | -0.1 |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
Statistics Canada publishes the Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) for Canada. It is released monthly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 30-60 pips on USD/CAD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD carry the cleanest reaction. Loonie inflation repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.