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The month-on-month change in the total value of sales at the retail level, covering roughly a third of total consumer spending.
| Published by | US Census Bureau |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 35-70 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Retail Sales (MoM) is released monthly by US Census Bureau, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Consumption is about seventy per cent of US GDP, so retail sales is the fastest monthly read on whether growth is holding up.
The control group, which feeds directly into GDP, often matters more to the market than the headline.
Typical volatility around the release is 35-70 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Growth-differential trade. |
| USD/CAD | Canada's export cycle is levered to the US consumer. |
| AUD/USD | Risk-sensitive; rallies on a strong US consumer read. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% | +0.2 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 0.7% | -0.2% | -0.1% | +0.1 |
| 16 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | -0.1 |
| 16 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 |
US Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales (MoM) for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 35-70 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD carry the cleanest reaction. Growth-differential trade.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.