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The year-on-year change in the price of a fixed basket of consumer goods and services bought by urban households.
| Published by | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 50-100 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Consumer Price Index (YoY) is released monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Inflation determines how much room the Federal Reserve has to cut, so a tenth either side of consensus can reprice the entire front end of the curve.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, usually drives the reaction more than the headline number.
Typical volatility around the release is 50-100 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Rate-differential trade; the most liquid outlet for a CPI surprise. |
| USD/JPY | Highly sensitive to the 2-year US yield move that follows. |
| USD/CHF | Safe-haven flows amplify the dollar leg on large misses. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| 13 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0 |
| 14 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| 14 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | +0.1 |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | +0.1 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| 14 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| 15 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index (YoY) for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 50-100 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF carry the cleanest reaction. Rate-differential trade; the most liquid outlet for a CPI surprise.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.