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The year-on-year change in output from Chinese factories, mines and utilities.
| Published by | National Bureau of Statistics |
|---|---|
| Country | China |
| Currency affected | CNY |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 02:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Low impact |
| Typical volatility | 10-25 pips on AUD/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The China Industrial Production (YoY) is released monthly by National Bureau of Statistics, usually at 02:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Industrial output drives Chinese demand for iron ore, copper and energy, which sets the tone for commodity currencies.
It is released with retail sales and fixed-asset investment, so the market trades the batch rather than any single line.
Typical volatility around the release is 10-25 pips on AUD/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| AUD/USD | Commodity proxy. |
| NZD/USD | Secondary proxy. |
| USD/CNH | Direct renminbi expression. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0 |
| 18 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | -0.1 |
| 19 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | -0.1 |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | -0.2 |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | -0.2 |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | +0.1 |
| 19 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | +0.2 |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | +0.1 |
National Bureau of Statistics publishes the China Industrial Production (YoY) for China. It is released monthly, typically at 02:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release low impact. In our sample the typical move is 10-25 pips on AUD/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH carry the cleanest reaction. Commodity proxy.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.