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The difference between the value of Chinese exports and imports for the month, reported in US dollars.
| Published by | General Administration of Customs |
|---|---|
| Country | China |
| Currency affected | CNY |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 03:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 20-40 pips on AUD/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The China Trade Balance is released monthly by General Administration of Customs, usually at 03:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
Import growth is the market's preferred read on Chinese domestic demand, which drives commodity currencies.
The release has no fixed minute, so the reaction window is unusually wide.
Typical volatility around the release is 20-40 pips on AUD/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| AUD/USD | Commodity-demand proxy. |
| NZD/USD | Secondary proxy. |
| USD/CNH | Direct renminbi expression. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 98.5B | 81.2B | 85.6B | +4.4 |
| 8 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 93.8B | 102.3B | 98.5B | -3.8 |
| 9 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 103.2B | 96.2B | 93.8B | -2.4 |
| 9 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 99.2B | 105.1B | 103.2B | -1.9 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 80.2B | 100.2B | 99.2B | -1.0 |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 79.3B | 79.9B | 80.2B | +0.3 |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 94.6B | 77.6B | 79.3B | +1.7 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 93.6B | 94.1B | 94.6B | +0.5 |
General Administration of Customs publishes the China Trade Balance for China. It is released monthly, typically at 03:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 20-40 pips on AUD/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNH carry the cleanest reaction. Commodity-demand proxy.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.