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A first estimate of the year-on-year change in euro-area consumer prices, released before the full national breakdowns.
| Published by | Eurostat |
|---|---|
| Country | Euro Area |
| Currency affected | EUR |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 09:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 30-60 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) is released monthly by Eurostat, usually at 09:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
It is the ECB's headline inflation scorecard and the last major data point before most Governing Council meetings.
The German and Spanish national prints a day earlier usually telegraph the number, so the surprise is often small.
Typical volatility around the release is 30-60 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Direct euro rate repricing. |
| EUR/GBP | Relative inflation trade. |
| EUR/JPY | Carry-sensitive euro expression. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| 1 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| 2 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | +0.1 |
| 2 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | -0.1 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | +0.1 |
| 1 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | -0.1 |
| 2 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| 3 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
Eurostat publishes the Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (YoY) for Euro Area. It is released monthly, typically at 09:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 30-60 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Direct euro rate repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.