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The target range for the federal funds rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee, announced alongside a policy statement.
| Published by | Federal Open Market Committee |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | 8 times per year |
| Usual release time | 18:00 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | High impact |
| Typical volatility | 70-150 pips on EUR/USD across the decision and press conference |
The Fed Interest Rate Decision is released 8 times per year by Federal Open Market Committee, usually at 18:00 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Every release in the window has already been published. The next one falls outside the four-week demo calendar.
The Fed sets the risk-free rate for the world's reserve currency, so its decisions ripple through every currency pair.
The decision itself is usually priced; the statement language and the press conference that follows produce the larger move.
Typical volatility around the release is 70-150 pips on EUR/USD across the decision and press conference. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | The benchmark dollar pair. |
| USD/JPY | The most rate-differential-sensitive major. |
| XAU/USD | Moves inversely with real yields set by the Fed. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2026 | Jun meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 30 Apr 2026 | Apr meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Mar meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Jan meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 16 Dec 2025 | Dec meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 1 Nov 2025 | Nov meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 17 Sep 2025 | Sep meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Aug meeting | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | 0.00 |
Federal Open Market Committee publishes the Fed Interest Rate Decision for United States. It is released 8 times per year, typically at 18:00 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release high impact. In our sample the typical move is 70-150 pips on EUR/USD across the decision and press conference, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD carry the cleanest reaction. The benchmark dollar pair.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.