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The year-on-year change in Japanese consumer prices, with core measures excluding fresh food and energy published alongside.
| Published by | Statistics Bureau of Japan |
|---|---|
| Country | Japan |
| Currency affected | JPY |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 23:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 20-45 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes |
The Japan National CPI (YoY) is released monthly by Statistics Bureau of Japan, usually at 23:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Sustained inflation above target is the precondition the BoJ has set for further normalisation.
The Tokyo CPI released three weeks earlier is a strong leading indicator, so the national print rarely shocks.
Typical volatility around the release is 20-45 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Yen rate repricing. |
| EUR/JPY | Carry expression. |
| GBP/JPY | Highest-beta yen cross. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | +0.1 |
| 21 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| 22 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | -0.1 |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0 |
| 23 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | +0.1 |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| 23 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | -0.1 |
Statistics Bureau of Japan publishes the Japan National CPI (YoY) for Japan. It is released monthly, typically at 23:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 20-45 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Yen rate repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.