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A first estimate of the quarter-on-quarter change in Japan's inflation-adjusted output.
| Published by | Cabinet Office of Japan |
|---|---|
| Country | Japan |
| Currency affected | JPY |
| Release frequency | Quarterly |
| Usual release time | 23:50 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 20-40 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes |
The Japan GDP Preliminary (QoQ) is released quarterly by Cabinet Office of Japan, usually at 23:50 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Growth momentum determines how confident the BoJ can be in continuing to normalise policy.
Large revisions between the preliminary and final readings are common, which caps the initial reaction.
Typical volatility around the release is 20-40 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Yen growth channel. |
| EUR/JPY | Carry expression. |
| AUD/JPY | Regional-risk proxy. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Q1 2026 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| 15 Feb 2026 | Q4 2025 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Q3 2025 | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.0% | +0.1 |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Q2 2025 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| 18 May 2025 | Q1 2025 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Q4 2024 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| 17 Nov 2024 | Q3 2024 | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Q2 2024 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | -0.1 |
Cabinet Office of Japan publishes the Japan GDP Preliminary (QoQ) for Japan. It is released quarterly, typically at 23:50 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 20-40 pips on USD/JPY inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Yen growth channel.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.