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The quarter-on-quarter change in New Zealand's inflation-adjusted output.
| Published by | Stats NZ |
|---|---|
| Country | New Zealand |
| Currency affected | NZD |
| Release frequency | Quarterly |
| Usual release time | 22:45 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 40-80 pips on NZD/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The New Zealand GDP (QoQ) is released quarterly by Stats NZ, usually at 22:45 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
New Zealand's small, open economy swings sharply with commodity export prices, and GDP is where that shows up.
The release lands at 22:45 GMT when liquidity in the kiwi is at its thinnest, exaggerating moves.
Typical volatility around the release is 40-80 pips on NZD/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| NZD/USD | Direct kiwi repricing. |
| AUD/NZD | Relative-growth trade. |
| NZD/JPY | Carry expression. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May 2026 | Q1 2026 | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 16 Feb 2026 | Q4 2025 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Q3 2025 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| 18 Aug 2025 | Q2 2025 | 0.8% | -0.1% | 0.0% | +0.1 |
| 19 May 2025 | Q1 2025 | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| 17 Feb 2025 | Q4 2024 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 |
| 18 Nov 2024 | Q3 2024 | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 19 Aug 2024 | Q2 2024 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0 |
Stats NZ publishes the New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for New Zealand. It is released quarterly, typically at 22:45 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 40-80 pips on NZD/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Direct kiwi repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.