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The difference between the value of New Zealand's exports and imports over the month, in New Zealand dollars.
| Published by | Stats NZ |
|---|---|
| Country | New Zealand |
| Currency affected | NZD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 22:45 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Low impact |
| Typical volatility | 5-20 pips on NZD/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The New Zealand Trade Balance is released monthly by Stats NZ, usually at 22:45 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Dairy is the dominant export, so the balance is effectively a read on global dairy demand.
Monthly seasonality is severe, which is why the annual running balance is quoted alongside.
Typical volatility around the release is 5-20 pips on NZD/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| NZD/USD | Minor kiwi impulse. |
| AUD/NZD | Minor. |
| NZD/JPY | Minor. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | -1.09B | -0.58B | -0.44B | +0.14 |
| 21 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | -0.87B | -1.20B | -1.09B | +0.11 |
| 22 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | -0.57B | -0.92B | -0.87B | +0.05 |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | -0.61B | -0.49B | -0.57B | -0.08 |
| 23 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | -0.14B | -0.58B | -0.61B | -0.03 |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | -0.35B | 0.10B | -0.14B | -0.24 |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | -1.16B | -0.22B | -0.35B | -0.13 |
| 23 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 0.06B | -1.30B | -1.16B | +0.14 |
Stats NZ publishes the New Zealand Trade Balance for New Zealand. It is released monthly, typically at 22:45 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release low impact. In our sample the typical move is 5-20 pips on NZD/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY carry the cleanest reaction. Minor kiwi impulse.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.