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The year-on-year change in prices received by domestic producers for their output, measured before goods reach the consumer.
| Published by | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
|---|---|
| Country | United States |
| Currency affected | USD |
| Release frequency | Monthly |
| Usual release time | 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00) |
| Impact rating | Medium impact |
| Typical volatility | 20-40 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes |
The Producer Price Index (YoY) is released monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00). These are the dates inside our calendar window.
Producer prices lead consumer prices, so PPI helps the market refine its inflation path after CPI.
Several PPI components feed directly into the PCE deflator, which is what the Fed actually targets.
Typical volatility around the release is 20-40 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes. That is an average, not a limit: when the figure lands far from consensus, or when it contradicts the central bank's own guidance, the move can be several times larger and can extend for the rest of the session.
| Pair | Why it reacts |
|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Inflation-path repricing. |
| USD/JPY | Front-end yield sensitive. |
| XAU/USD | Real-yield sensitive. |
Surprise is the released figure minus the consensus forecast, in the units of the release. Green means the figure printed above consensus, red below.
| Release date | Period | Previous | Forecast | Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| 14 Jun 2026 | May 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| 15 May 2026 | Apr 2026 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| 15 Apr 2026 | Mar 2026 | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | +0.1 |
| 16 Mar 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | +0.1 |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Jan 2026 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | +0.1 |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Dec 2025 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| 16 Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0 |
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Producer Price Index (YoY) for United States. It is released monthly, typically at 12:30 GMT (UTC+00:00).
We rate this release medium impact. In our sample the typical move is 20-40 pips on EUR/USD inside the first 30 minutes, though a large deviation from consensus can produce considerably more.
EUR/USD, USD/JPY, XAU/USD carry the cleanest reaction. Inflation-path repricing.
No. The currency reaction depends on how the figure changes the expected path of interest rates, not on whether the headline is high or low. The same surprise can be read very differently depending on the central bank's current stance.